Twitter handle: @napaki

Read the original article by clicking on the respective post titles

Friday, April 15, 2011

Foreign aid & loan fuelled #pakistan's forex currency reserve unsustainable

Sustainability of those reserves are a cause for concern in the medium term, analysts said on Friday.

Out of the reserves nearly $8 billion is the amount we have borrowed from IMF (International Monetary Fund) and then there are other foreign loans, so we can say around 55 percent of the reserves are Pakistan's, the rest is on loans.

Pakistan entered into an IMF loan programme in November 2008 to avert a balance of payments crisis and so far about $8 billion has been lent to the country.

"If one were to take the IMF reserves out of the equation, it (Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves position) is not that solid," said Rune Stroem, Country Director of Asian Development Bank to Pakistan last week.

Analysts said it is important to note that the value of exports has gone up due to a rise in cotton prices but not the quantity. Once cotton prices decrease that may lead to a decrease in exports as well.

The narrowing of the trade deficit is "mainly due to transitional reasons," according to the central bank.

"Another factor to worry about is the increase in international oil prices which comes with a lag to Pakistan," said Asif Qureshi, director at Invisor Securities Ltd.

"Why on earth would remittances grow by 23 or 24 percent? What is happening around the world?" asked Ashfaque Hasan Khan, Director General at NUST Business School in Islamabad, in regards to the global slowdown in economic activity.